Perspectives

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, governments have actively depressed bond yields and inflated bond prices.  Unfortunately, most market manipulations ultimately meet a messy end.  If and when this particular manipulation goes the way of all flesh, yields will rise and bond investors will lose money.  Bonds would stop being effective investment instruments, and become “Certificates of Confiscation”.

Unlike Scrooge’s deceased business partner, Marley, we don’t believe that inflation has met the same fate.  It is subdued, but lives.  Despite the contentions of Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT), we disagree that the US can continue printing money without consequences.

In the aftermath of the November elections, we thought it worthwhile to revisit the economic and market risks Biden is facing. Plus, The pandemic is far from over, but COVID’s shattering effects on consumer behavior will be with us for a very long time to come. Not only are consumers foregoing crowds and living online, but what they buy, what brands they buy, and how they spend their time has already shifted.

Stock market and economy disconnect? The consumer is defining reality. Plus, Apocalypse Soon, Part II. Can central banks continue to “manage” inflation?

Apocalypse soon? In the current environment, there clearly is nothing resembling certainty.  But the probability of seeing stagflation this decade is increasing.

Is globalization on the rocks and can the U.S. decouple from China? Also, what ways can you and your board take advantage of distressed corporate situations?

Deja (CLO) Collateralized Loan Obligations All Over Again. Storm clouds are gathering over the CLO market. Restructuring within the Cannabis industry.

Family Offices and direct investment in middle market deals. Does big oil have a do-or-die decade ahead because of climante change? And, are we in a “valuation bubble”?

The number of overleveraged companies that recognize they may have intractable debt problems is increasing and will we see an increase in hospital bankruptcies?